What we are seeing is serious bailout fatigue. It may seem like Wolfgang Schäuble is working against the Greeks by making inflammatory statements. The reality, however, is that he has domestic political issues to contend with. And he needs to make sure that whatever the German government does is seen in a favourable light given the domestic constraints.
I think we are going to have a problem then if Greece wants more i.e. a reduction in the net present value of its debt via a derivatives structure like GDP-linked bonds or writedowns. It makes sense to get that reduction because the debt burden is unsustainable. But it is not politically viable in Germany right now, in my view. We could see a default as a result. And that does not necessarily mean Grexit.
A politically acceptable outcome is Greece negotiating for NPV reduction, the Germans saying no and Greece defaulting and staying within the eurozone. Greece can say we fought for what was right and Germany can say they did not allow the Greeks to get off lightly; the Greeks simply reneged on their obligations. This is an outcome that is politically viable and one I think has a high likelihood of occurring.
From Edward Harrison's blog Credit Writedowns
https://www.creditwritedowns.com/2015/03/wolfgang-schaeuble-salesman.html
